0-3 on 4th down. That’s how Oregon fans will remember this game vs Washington. Those three 4th down decisions from Dan Lanning were critical in the outcome of the game.

Let’s jump into the decisions. It’s important to separate decisions from outcome or results when analyzing the decisions. Had his team executed and had gone 3-3 on those 4th downs, let’s face it, we’re not having this discussion. Instead, Oregon is celebrating a top 10 win on the road to a Heisman caliber QB.

The first 4th down decision to go for it was a 4th and goal from the 3 yard line with 5 seconds left in the second half. At the time, they were down 4 points and a successful field goal would have them trailing by 1 point heading into half, expecting to receive the ball coming out of the tunnel to start the 2nd half. Truthfully, this is the only decision where I have a strong opinion disagreeing with Lanning’s decision to opt for a 4th down offensive attempt. I think this is an opportunity to take the 3 points and prepare your team to drive the field to start the 2nd half. Instead, a failed 4th down attempt left them down 4 heading into the half.

The second 4th down call was my favorite of the 4th down calls. I think you make this call every time. Unfortunately this was just tallied as a missed execution and again, 3 potential points left on the board.

This second 4th down call was a 4th and 3 from the Washington 8 yard line, down 29-18 in the third quarter. A field goal here makes this a one possession game. A failed play puts Washington deep in their own territory to drive the entire field. This call I am all on board with Dan Lanning. Again, what bit them here was a failed execution, not a wrong decision to go for it on 4th down.

The third 4th down decision to go for it, came at the end of the game with Oregon leading Washington with less than 2 minutes left in the game. A first down conversion here ultimately ends the game. A failed 4th down attempt gives Washington the ball in plus territory with arguably the best offense in the country. Do you punt or ask your offense to get 3 yards to end the game? Truthfully, I’m 51/49 here on this decision with a slight lean to punting, however I think both decisions are very defensible. At the time, Oregon had both their corners go down on earlier drives leaving them very exposed to the high potent Washington offense littered with NFL talent out wide. If you get the 3 yards, you keep that offense off the field entirely and win the game. If you punt, you likely pin them back at roughly their own 20. With a vulnerable defense in the secondary now, Lanning was faced with the question of which do I trust more? The defense with 2nd string corners to stop the Washington air raid, or my offense that has put up 500 yards this game to get 3 yards? He chose the offense. Can’t knock him for that. While it didn’t work out, I don’t necessarily think it was the wrong call. If that call works, everyone is praising that man even with missing the other two fourth down calls.

Additionally, let’s break down what happened after that missed 4th down attempt. Washington goes 47 yards in 2 plays and gives Oregon the ball back with over a minute and a half left in the game. That gave Oregon plenty of time to put together a solid drive down the field. The kicker just ended up missing the kick. Had he made the kick? Would Lanning’s decision even be talked about if they went into overtime and won the game?

While Lanning’s team ended up going 0-3 on these 4th down executions, it is extremely important to remember, that NONE of these calls “cost” Oregon the game. After the first call, there was an entire half left of play. It would be crazy to say that 4th down attempt “cost” them the game. Did it change how the game would be played, yes, but this did not cost them the game like his predecessor Mario Cristobal did at Miami vs Georgia Tech the other weekend. Not taking knees and running out the clock would be considered costing Miami the game. These decisions were merely missed executions that as a result left points off the board and or placed Washington in a good position to capitalize on the missed executions.

This will be a learning process for Dan Lanning. He has taken full ownership of his decisions and has provided rationale for all of them. Good on him for taking all the heat and sticking to your guns. That’s the kind of coach I’d be wanting to play for. Making gutsy decisions in high stakes games and putting full trust in his players to get the job done.

-Kevin Joy