National Title Preview
The Michigan Wolverines and Washington Huskies face off in the 2023 National Title. These two teams could not be more different. Seattle and Ann Arbor are over 2,200 miles apart from each other, these schools prioritize different recruiting regions and stylistically Michigan plays like Paul Bunyan while Washington plays like Spiderman. All of this makes for a wildly interesting match up.
Truthfully, because these teams are so different, and the competition they each have respectfully faced have been very different, it makes this pretty difficult to predict an outcome. But here at Big Body Ball, we don’t shy away from a challenge.
Let’s start with the #1 ranked Michigan Wolverines. Never dipping below #3 in the polls all year, Michigan finds itself at the top of the sport and in a position that they have not been in since 1997 when they won their last national title. Even then, the championship was shared with Nebraska. This is rarified air for Michigan in their recent history. They’ve been fighting the elements of this climb for several years now and can almost taste victory. Just one opponent stands in their way of receiving the crown.
Michigan enters this game with the advantage on the LOS, arguably on both sides of the ball despite Washington winning the Joe Moore award for best OL. This is the brand of football Michigan likes to play and will want to take advantage of on Monday night. Bully ball. They have been bludgeoning teams to death with their run game and excellent offensive line play. This makes for a nice matchup for them against the 41st ranked rushing defense in the Washington Huskies. They’ll look to their star running back Blake Corum to have a huge game here. This is where Michigan will want to control the pace of the game. Drain the clock and just get 3-5 yards per clip and move the sticks. This is their path to success in this game offensively.
On the other side of the ball, Michigan’s defensive line is one of the best in the country and just absolutely owned the Alabama offensive line. Can they do the same to the Joe Moore winning offensive line in Washington? I do think they will have success here against this line. The question will be to what extent can they get to Michael Penix to impair his elite throwing ability. Supplemented with the rush up front, the two super stars at corner for Michigan in Sainristil and Johnson will need to have their best game to keep up with the three futures NFL draft picks in Polk, Odunze and McMillan. This is where the fun starts. These three receivers don’t shy away from anyone and because of the talent across the board here, all of them are weapons at any given moment. Sainristil and Johnson will also be future NFL picks, likely in the first 2 rounds. Which talent will win out? Michigan has not seen a passing attack like Washington’s so far. Not even Ohio State posed as much as a threat as Washington does. Their secondary will need to force turnovers and hang with these receivers to win the game.
Let’s turn this over to Washington. As noted before, the weakest unit on this field is the Washington defense. They have a tall task to manage the Michigan run game and force Michigan off the field. They also have not faced a defense as stingy as Michigan’s this year. That said, Oregon and Texas did have strong defenses and will at least have given them a flavor of what type of player to prepare for. While Michigan’s pass game is not a major threat, McCarthy and these receivers can still get open and that needs to be respected. This is part of what makes Michigan so dangerous. Washington will need to do their best to force a pass and to get the clock stopped as much as possible.
A major question in the Washington offense will be the health and status of Dillon Johnson. He truly has been a one man show in the back field for the Huskies this year and an unhealthy Johnson will allow Michigan to force a one-dimensional offensive scheme for Washington albeit that dimension being Washington’s strong suit.
Washington will have an advantage if they can get up on Michigan early. Having Michigan play catch up is not their strength while Washington is built for putting points on the board. DeBoer has proven to be an elite play call scripter at the beginning of games. He’ll need to do that again against this defense to put his team in a good position to win.
As far as the game goes, Michigan at the moment is a 4.5 point favorite. This is a tricky line. I subscribe to superior roster talent and winning the LOS in the trenches proves out victory in college football more often than not. Michigan has the clear edge in both of those categories. That said, given Vegas only has this line at 4.5 points scares me. Every ounce of my body says Michigan wins this game by double digits. They have the more talented roster and they control the LOS. Not to mention it seems as though they have been on a war path this year having lost the last two semi’s and having Harbaugh being suspended for half the season. They have the “Michigan vs everybody” mentality and they are owning it. On the flip side, Washington has been doubted all year and were underdogs in their last two major games (Pac12 Champ against Oregon and semi against Texas) and have won both games convincingly.
My pick on the game is Wash +4.5. I’ll also sprinkle some on the ML. I think they can keep this close and I think they can pull it out and continue to shock the world!
