Big Body Ball

View Original

Trickle Down Saban Effect

Shortly after the 2023 CFB Season closes the door, the most iconic figure in the sport retires. After 17 years at the helm in Tuscaloosa, stewarding the most dominant program the sport has ever seen, Nick Saban steps down as head coach at the University of Alabama.

His impact, influence and accomplishments in the sport are well documented. Even fair weather fans know who Nick Saban is. He’s the best to ever do it and there likely won’t be another who can surpass him.

With Saban, now out of the sport (at least as a coach of an SEC team), a new era is born. Many people have been yearning for this day (myself not being one of them). But this absolutely changes everything in the sport. Let’s start with the coaching carousel that has now re-opened. With the Bama job now being occupied by former Washington coach Kalen DeBoer, we begin the trickle down Saban effect. This is a brand new coaching carousel. It builds upon one that had previously already ran it’s course at the end of 2023 featuring coaching changes at Michigan State, Texas A&M, Tulane, Houston, Duke, Mississippi State and others.

How far will the Saban trickle down effect drip? We have the immediate successor in Kalen DeBoer, whose role has been filled by former Arizona coach Jedd Fisch, whose role is now filled by Brent Brennan, former San Jose State coach. The head coaching tree from this will obviously continue as San Jose State will now look for a successor. But what about coordinators? Outside of DeBoer accepting the Bama job, perhaps the biggest trickle down comes from Travaris Robinson leaving Alabama to join Georgia as a Co-Defensive Coordinator. This was a huge get for Georgia as he’s regarded as one of the best recruiters in the country. Additionally, it seems as though Ryan Grubb may follow DeBoer to Alabama. The dust has far from settled but we’re starting to see the initial dominos follow.

Let’s get to the Alabama roster. This is where the most impact will be felt both internally at Alabama and externally for other programs. With Saban leaving, the Alabama players have a 30 day window to enter the portal. We’ve already seen several former 4 and 5 star recruits enter the portal from the Alabama team. We’ve seen two 5 star Alabama recruits for the 2024 & 2025 classes decommit due to Saban leaving. All of this leaves so much available talent for the rest of the sport. Florida State has been an early beneficiary of the Saban departure and there will likely be others as well. Will we continue to see Bama kids hit the portal and decommit? Or will we see DeBoer retain and recruit his own roster?

A large part of committing to Alabama stemmed from having Saban at the helm. Bama wasn’t one of the leaders in throwing NIL money at players because they didn’t need to. Saban sold the script A. Top talent came to Bama because of Saban and his staffs ability to develop for the next stage. This leverage has now been stripped for the university. Alabama needs to restructure priorities in a Saban-less world. It will be harder to get the 5 stars and high 4 stars based on name alone. Welcome to the rest of the sport…

Overall, I think this is a really good hire for Alabama. DeBoer checks a lot of boxes and I think he can be successful in Tuscaloosa. Like others, my main question is, can he recruit at an elite level in the south? Just because he has not done this before, doesn’t mean that he can’t. However, he remains unproven in this field and until we see results, this is where all the attention will be drawn.

Side note, this carousel might get an adrenaline injection. Harbaugh has just interviewed for the Los Angeles Chargers position. If he pursues the NFL, we will have both the Michigan job and the Alabama job come open in a short period of time. Both of these positions overlapping vacancy cycles will draw chaos. I’m all here for it!